Friday, May 27, 2022

Sun Baked Observatory Report


Sun Baked Observatory Report
The Sun is ramping up activity according to NASA's announcement of X-class solar flares, and observers who have seen large sunspot groups with the unaided eye. Online services have issued multiple aurora alerts even for mid-latitudes.


According to Sky & Telescope, after years of quiescence — the Sun was more often spotless than not in 2018, 2019, and 2020 — the change of pace is exciting solar observers. The Sun goes through 11-year cycles of magnetically instigated activity, which include sunspots, flares, and massive eruptions. While such activity last peaked around 2012 through 2014, that maximum was meager at best. In fact, it marked one of the quietest cycles in 100 years. Now, the uptick in activity seems to mark a change in the Sun’s behavior.

The consensus model from Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel (red line) slightly underpredicts the Sun's current activity (sunspot numbers shown in black). But there's wiggle room in that prediction: give or take six months for the cycle's start and give or take 10 sunspots for the daily sunspot number. With an slightly earlier start and higher activity, the panel's forecast is still spot on. Space Weather Prediction Center